Tuesday, May 24, 2011

champions' league final

less than 50 hours to the big game, olympique lyonnaise versus turbine potsdam. basically the rematch of last season's final.


last season, ol lost on penalties to turbine, even leading 3-2 at one point in the shootout. herlovsen and thomis missed, and the rest was history.

i believe this season represents the best opportunity for ol feminin to win their first ever champions' league. but more on that later.

turbine team news
no sign of any injuries even after the international weekend, so i assume bernd schröder will have a full squad to choose from. turbine plays a 3-4-3. in fact 9 of the starting lineup is cast in stone:

sarholz in goal, peter and henning in defence, zietz and odebrecht in midfield, nagasato, bajramaj and mittag in attack.

schmidt will definitely play.. the only question is where? in defence or as wingback?

basically, where she plays will determine the other starters:

if she plays in defence, isabel kerchowski and tabea kemme will play on the flanks.

if she plays in midfield, inka wesely will play in defence, and tabea kemme will start, with kerchowski ready to come off the bench to add attacking impetus.

personally, i don't know what schröder will do. i would prefer to play schmidt in defence, but wesely has more or less started much of the season. schmidt was playing in defence last season. will schröder switch back to that system, or would he play schmidt in midfield to take advantage of her running ability?

what i know for sure is that if turbine are chasing the game, natasa andanova, the teenage macedonian prodigy, and isabel kerchowski will be on the pitch to provide the direct pace.

knowing the wily old fox that schröder is, he will probably start out with a conservative formation, because he knows he can up the tempo if he needs to. that's why i think schmidt will play in midfield.

lyon team news:
corinne franco and ingvild stensland are back from injury. i am not sure how positive that news is, because i think lyon have been coping well without them, and they haven't played a competitive game. i don't think, while patrice lair has named them in the squad travelling to london, that they will start.

which means we have the expected back 4 and 2 defensive midfielders.

the big question is really whether necib will start. i am a big fan of necib. and i hope she starts and ends the game and decides the game for ol. but i know turbine's strengths and acknowledge that it is going to be a match of attrition, and necib is not exactly the kind of player to engage in 'trench warfare'.

given the options that turbine has, the last 20 minutes will be crucial. and necib will most certainly be the player coming off, knowing patrice lair. as a fan, i would prefer that she is on the pitch when the final whistle is blown.

I really don't know who patrice lair will start in attack, aside from schelin and abily. dickenmann, necib, le sommer or god forbid thomis?

tactical matchup:
turbine plays a 3-4-3, which is a curious formation, in my opinion. 3,4 years ago, i was an advocate of it, but have since been convinced otherwise. yet, turbine has been very successful with it.

if we look at it statically, the 4-3-3 that lyon plays will cancel a 3-4-3 out. in fact, abily, of all players, will be that free player.

i think abily will be the key player for ol in this game. if she can find the space, i am confident that ol will triumph.

how the match will likely unfold
i think turbine will be content to soak up the pressure, given that lyon is a team which likes to keep the ball, and that turbine's greatest strength is their counter-attack.

what is important here is that necib, schelin and dickenmann can take up the attention of all 5 turbine defenders(the wingbacks will surely drop back), leaving abily and cruz to take on zietz and odebrecht. henry or bompastor must be ready to push up.

the important thing is that abily must find the space to play her passes, and schelin and necib are able to find the little pockets of space between the lines.

turbine's counterattack basically means get the ball to bajramaj or nagasato, let them run with the ball and shoot or cut the ball back. if anyone else can catch up, that's great news, otherwise they are content to attack with their 3 attackers.

for lyon, it means that if henry attacks, bompastor stays and vice versa.

in terms of substitutions, as mentioned earlier, turbine will be bringing on andanova and kerchowski. patrice lair will hope that he won't be chasing the game, because realistically speaking, he only has le sommer to bring on. let's face it: thomis has pace, but pace alone won't do any damage to a team like turbine.

i remember that lair didnt even shake thomis hand after taking her off in the first leg against arsenal and i wasnt surprised.

if he wants to protect the result, he knows that he can bring on stensland or franco.

i hope the ol girls are up for the fight, because this is their best chance to beat turbine potsdam.

turbine haven't been firing on all cylinders unlike last season. in fact, bernd schröder has admitted that he himself was surprised that they won the frauenbundesliga.

ol have strengthened, while turbine hasn't. abily, bompastor have returned to the club, schelin is fit again: three very big players. plus le sommer to come off the bench instead of herlovsen.

it will not be an easy game, because turbine will be very fit, very physical, very organised and very determined.

but i believe that ol have the technique and intelligence to become the queens of europe.

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