The French

If you want to win a major tournament, you need to have a stable defence and mental toughness. But I thought what separates two teams is the attacking options available. What else right, coming from an attacker. To win, you need to score. What Greece did 4 years ago will not happen this time round. So any team that wants to win must be able to score.

Ideally, the first eleven that plays should have the quality to do the job. But sometimes, things happen and this doesn't happen. This is where the availability of attacking options comes in. Which team has the ability to pull a player off the bench, put him in and he makes the desired impact?

In this respect, especially after watching 12 teams, I must say only the Dutch have this quality in their team. The Spanish too, actually, but I hope they prove me right first tonight.

The Germans have a good attack, but seriously I don't feel threatened if Kuranyi comes on for Klose. Schweinsteiger might be their impact player, but to me, he is a starter, not Fritz.

This is why I think the French can be beaten. Their first 11, sans Henry, started against Romania and were neutralized. They brought on Gomis, who despite the potential, is still too raw to play on the biggest stage. Nasri is the only player who can come on and make a difference, and the problem is that he plays more as a playmaker, where it is hard to stamp your mark on the game when you come in late. Of course his introduction can introduce more form in the French attack, but I feel that his impact won't be that great. Anelka indeed has the quality, but his indifference and grouchiness take away some of his lethality.

So, if you want to stop the French, you just need to stop their Plan A, because they don't have a Plan B.

How to stop the French

The French would play 4-2-2-2. Henry will start, because they can't afford any slipup. But the key player will be Ribery. He will play on the right, but will have the licence to roam, even to the left. Ironically, if he goes to the left, Malouda will be rendered useless, not that Malouda is that effective in the first place. In fact, I see Malouda as the weak link in the French attack. I am happy to see Malouda start because I don't see him as a particularly dangerous player. And he doesn't seem to know what to do, where to go. And when Henry plays, he tends to go to the left, thereby crowding out the left flank. So a 4-man attack effectively becomes 3-man. Much easier to deal with.

I don't know why Bhoularouz was picked ahead of Heitinga. The only reason I could think of was to counter the physical presence of Luca Toni, because while Heitinga is very competitive, he is smaller than Bhoularouz. Nevertheless, he is faster and simply better. So I expect him to start on the right, because Henry will be there.

I don't see the central defence as key to stopping the French. They just need to read the game well enough to step in to sweep up the balls the French will try to slip into the box.

The real defensive battle is the areas around the box. Ribery will be there, Henry will be there, even Benzema will be there. And all 3 can shoot from distance. So the defensive midfield pairing must stop them from testing van der Sar.

It will be hard to catch the French on the counter, which is a pity, because we are so good at it, as seen against Italy. The reason is because the French are very organized, and very conservative. I thought about the possibility of Domenech doing a Löw, meaning putting Anelka on the left instead of Malouda. Highly unlikely.

Nevertheless, the French have some weaknesses in defence, which somewhat parallel the Italians. Thuram is no longer young and fast. Gallas is not fantastically fast either. Sagnol is also no longer that galloping fullback he was. It is a pity that Robben is ruled out, and van Basten will probably not risk him, otherwise he should have a field day against Sagnol. Abidal didn't impress me in the friendlies I watched. I feel that his positioning is off. So the French defence is not that solid. I think Afellay should come in with about 20 minutes left, with the old legs tired. His pace will really make an impact, I feel. But to finish the job in the first 70 minutes, I think the attack that started against Italy can do the job, because like I say, both defences are somewhat similar. I would have changed Kuyt, actually, but I think his work rate will again be important to neutralise the French threat on the flanks.

But if things don't go to plan, I think van Persie and Afellay should be the ones coming in to change the game.