france-usa
in my opinion, if france can play their game and beat hope solo, this is their game to lose. many people will look at this fixture and tell you that usa are the favourites.
france plays the better football and are the better team. though of course we know that the better team, the better football doesn't always win.
let's talk about usa first.
they got out of jail against brazil. i think against brazil, they looked very inhibited. perhaps it was the effect of the shock defeat against sweden. so triumphing against brazil will do their confidence and morale wonders.
but if you look at their team, it is actually quite limited in terms of ability.
hope solo is a great keeper, as she has shown against brazil. abby wambach is a powerful striker who worries defenders just with her presence. the rest of the players are just cogs in the machine: athletic players with decent skills. amy lepailbet at leftback and rachel buehler at centreback are weak links in the defence. rachel buehler is suspended for the semi-final. and i do wonder if her replacement is going to be any better; why else would buehler be first choice?
usa play a traditional flat 4-4-2. all 4 midfielders can advance with the ball. abby wambach can hold up play while her strike partner amy rodriguez is more mobile and has licence to roam. but that's it. for me they are very rigid.
they will send in crosses and take long shots, because these are their strengths. like germany, norway, sweden, they don't have a playmaker or a great passer of the ball.
france have 3: camille abily, louisa necib and gaetane thiney. these are the 3 who play in the 3 in france's 4-2-3-1 behind marie laure delie. the thing that struck me about them is how all 3 swop positions during the game, underlining how comfortable they are both on the flank as well as in the middle.
the only question is: will renard partner georges in defence in light of the wambach threat? i think the key is to stop the ball from going into the box. this means closing down the americans quickly and having possession. against england, france had all the possession and isolated ellen white up front. the americans will pose the same aerial threat as the germans, and renard didnt look good against the germans. so i really don't know. i think renard will play. and i hope she will show up.
if they can handle the physical aspect and abby wambach, then what's left is just to play their game and beat hope solo. use their technique, use their intelligence.
japan v sweden
this will be an interesting contest. sweden started the competition with jessica landstrom in attack but josefine oqvist has since established herself as lotta schelin's strike partner. jessica landstrom is strong in the air while oqvist is a very quick player. so the question would be: would dennerby try to go the aerial route and bring in landstrom again?
my advice would be no. the japanese are shorter but germany didnt find any joy with that. in any case, i think schelin, sjoegren, the two key players in the swedish attack prefer to keep the ball on the ground. that's why oqvist has broken into the team. they function better as a team.
sweden are solid at the back, though i think japan will really test them with their quick passing and intelligent movement.
what i like about the swedish game is that they switch flanks very well. they make use of the space well. lotta schelin is the kind of forward that occupies the whole defence and it allows sjoegren and oqvist to play. forsberg, the other attacker plays abit of the dirk kuyt role, a runner upfront.
i mentioned playmakers and fluidity earlier. japan has a playmaker in aya miyama. kozue ando is also a clever forward who drops back to link up play. their two fullbacks are probably the best attacking fullbacks in the tournament.
sweden do not have a real playmaker, but they are more advanced tactically than the usa because of schelin and sjoegren. schelin's intelligence gives them a natural fluidity while sjoegren is the next best thing to a playmaker. nominally a winger, she is very comfortable on the ball and likes to drift in, adding another dimension to the play. you can say that she plays the nasri role for sweden.
i think sweden will be content to let japan play and try to hit them on the counter. i expect a game that flows from end to end. japan are slight favourites, but with lotta schelin, you know that sweden always has a trump card.
development of the game
in a way, this quartet highlights the development of the women's game. in men's football, systems have moved towards the incorporation of intelligent, fluid players who are able to play between the lines. before this world cup, before ol feminin's triumph in the champions' league final, women's football was based on power and athleticism. it was alot about having the stronger, faster, fitter player who can get past her marker first and foremost with her physical attributes, coupled with the basic technique to control the ball.
in this respect, france and japan, interestingly the smallest teams among the top 8 teams, have shown the way, playing attractive football based on technique and intelligence.
as i mentioned, sweden with schelin and sjoegren are halfway there, while usa are the relics of the past. but even their coach has acknowledged the need to be able to play football and has slowly tried to incorporate it into the american system. but compared to the other 3, they are still behind.
the word to describe this kind of football that we are moving towards is 'sophisticated'. it is about having ideas in your head, being one step ahead of your opponent in the head and having the technique to realise your idea.
being a strong advocate of beautiful, intelligent football, i am hoping for a france-japan final. i think it would be a treat with the two best footballing teams in the tournament up against each other.